Nifty Update

We all know that Nifty has incessantly run up to 5600 levels, and the driving force for this unceasing rally has been FIIS which has pumped in 22000 crs of rupees in this current fiscal.

Except for interest rates mellowing down a bit, no other economic parameter has been exceptionally good. Fiscal deficit, policy paralysis, GDP, IIP numbers all are still not recuperating.

However as it is said and also witnessed that economic cycles and stock market cycles do not follow each other in medium to short term.

The optimism of Budget,the prospects of Congress doing well in the UP elections and the gushing of FII money are propelling Nifty to higher levels. At this point in time, the global markets too are not in any mood to relent especially Dow which has successfully surpassed 12900 mark.

However whatever goes up has to come off- Newtons law. I do not want to guestimate the top, as every time I do, I fall flat on my face. However one thing is sure that one should not buy in such an overbought market. 5450-5600 has been an important resistance zone for Nifty and one needs to bear caution here. On Friday Nifty on the daily charts made a red doji on very high volume - first sign of worry for bulls, yet on weekly charts it was well above last weeks doji. So one needs to closely watch if Nifty can surpass 5600 to head higher to 5700 levels else i expect some correction to 5450.

So the retail public should not worry of missing the bus. Wait patiently and you will get dips to buy Nifty and your other favourite stocks.



For shorting I place my bet again on Larsen and Tubro.

On Friday LT swifty moved to 1530, its 100 Week EMA; an almost 5% upmove in the early part of the day. However with very high volumes, it descended from 1530 levels and gave up all the gains of the day to close near Thursdays closing price.

Take an entry near 1465-1470 with sl of 1488 for target of 1410-1430.